retroking1
01-11-2009, 12:51 PM
Q: How many games do I have to win before I go up one level?
A: This depends a lot on how many games you have already played, how many games your opposition have already played and what type of games you play. It is a strength of the TrueSkill ranking system to move you up very quickly early on but to reduce the step-size in the updates after a series of consistent games. In general, the more people per team, the longer it takes to go up or down one level. But the more teams per game, the faster you can go up or down. Here is a list of game modes and number of wins necessary before you go up a level (assuming you have already played a fair number of games; otherwise you usually go up one level in one game).
Game Mode Number of Games per Gamer
8 Players Free-For-All 3
4 Players Free-For-All 4
2 Players Free-For-All 7
4 Teams/2 Players per Team 5
2 Teams/4 Players per Team 10
Q: How many games do I have to lose before I go down one level?
A:These numbers exactly equal the numbers given in the last question. The TrueSkill ranking system has no preferred direction of changing the skill belief
Q: If I understand the TrueSkill update formula correctly then the change in μ is largest for the first few games and decreases over time. Thus, my first few games are most important; if I lose these games, it will take the TrueSkill much longer to converge to my skill. Right?
A: Not exactly right. It is correct, that the change in μ is getting smaller and smaller with every game played, but regardless if you win or lose them. However, TrueSkill always takes more recent game outcomes more into account than older game outcomes. Hence, when playing against a set of players of same skill multiple times, a late win counts more than an early win. As an example, try the following in the interactive rank calculator (we will choose Alice for the analysis and assume a draw probability of 10%)
Scenario 1: One win followed by one loss: Final TrueSkill rank = 13
Scenario 2: One loss followed by one win: Final TrueSkill rank = 16
As you can see, winning the second game rather than the first actually resulted in a skill estimate ~2.5 levels higher than winning the first game and losing the second (to be precise, it is 2.586 = 26.293 - 23.707)! Note, however, that in this example the second game is not very well match-made. If all games are perfectly match-made, then the situation reverses. The reason is that the second game is lost against a stronger opposition or won against a weaker opposition. Try it out yourself in the interactive rank calculator.
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/projects/trueskill/faq.aspx
A: This depends a lot on how many games you have already played, how many games your opposition have already played and what type of games you play. It is a strength of the TrueSkill ranking system to move you up very quickly early on but to reduce the step-size in the updates after a series of consistent games. In general, the more people per team, the longer it takes to go up or down one level. But the more teams per game, the faster you can go up or down. Here is a list of game modes and number of wins necessary before you go up a level (assuming you have already played a fair number of games; otherwise you usually go up one level in one game).
Game Mode Number of Games per Gamer
8 Players Free-For-All 3
4 Players Free-For-All 4
2 Players Free-For-All 7
4 Teams/2 Players per Team 5
2 Teams/4 Players per Team 10
Q: How many games do I have to lose before I go down one level?
A:These numbers exactly equal the numbers given in the last question. The TrueSkill ranking system has no preferred direction of changing the skill belief
Q: If I understand the TrueSkill update formula correctly then the change in μ is largest for the first few games and decreases over time. Thus, my first few games are most important; if I lose these games, it will take the TrueSkill much longer to converge to my skill. Right?
A: Not exactly right. It is correct, that the change in μ is getting smaller and smaller with every game played, but regardless if you win or lose them. However, TrueSkill always takes more recent game outcomes more into account than older game outcomes. Hence, when playing against a set of players of same skill multiple times, a late win counts more than an early win. As an example, try the following in the interactive rank calculator (we will choose Alice for the analysis and assume a draw probability of 10%)
Scenario 1: One win followed by one loss: Final TrueSkill rank = 13
Scenario 2: One loss followed by one win: Final TrueSkill rank = 16
As you can see, winning the second game rather than the first actually resulted in a skill estimate ~2.5 levels higher than winning the first game and losing the second (to be precise, it is 2.586 = 26.293 - 23.707)! Note, however, that in this example the second game is not very well match-made. If all games are perfectly match-made, then the situation reverses. The reason is that the second game is lost against a stronger opposition or won against a weaker opposition. Try it out yourself in the interactive rank calculator.
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/projects/trueskill/faq.aspx